MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0015
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0147 PM CST MON JAN 07 2008

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA..NERN MO..NRN/CENTRAL IL..SRN WI..FAR NWRN
   IN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 071947Z - 072045Z

   SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING AS UNSEASONABLY WARM/MOIST
   WARM SECTOR FUELS SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION.  WW
   MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

   IMPULSE LIFTING NNEWD ACROSS NRN IA IS LIKELY ENHANCING CONVECTION
   DEVELOPING FROM NERN MO INTO FAR ERN IA AT 19Z...WHERE AXIS OF
   MODEST MLCAPE IS IN PLACE.  MLCAPE FROM 500-750 J/KG IS EVIDENT
   EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE OR NO CAP OVER FAR ERN IA AND NRN
   IL/FAR SERN WI.  IN ADDITION...STRONG SSWLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE
   REGION ARE MAINTAINING ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH SFC-1 KM SRH
   NOW IN EXCESS OF 200 M2/S2.  UNSEASONABLY WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
   EXTENDS WELL NWD INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND...GIVEN BOTH DEGREE OF
   SHEAR AND INCREASING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...TORNADO WW MAY BE
   WARRANTED SOON INTO THIS AREA.