First Moderate Risk of the Season
Currently under a Day 2 Moderate risk for tornadoes tomorrow:
…AR/MO/IL…LOWER OH VALLEY REGION…
PRIOR-OVERNIGHT SVR POTENTIAL DESCRIBED IN DAY-1 OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE UNABATED THROUGH EARLY DAY-2 PERIOD…WITH DAMAGING WIND
AND TORNADOES BEING MAIN CONCERNS. ONE OR MORE LINES OF SVR TSTMS
ARE EXPECTED TO SWEEP NEWD ACROSS OZARKS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS
MO/AR…THEN INTO WRN/SRN IL THROUGH MIDDAY. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES ARE STRONGLY FAVORABLE FOR BOWS AND SUPERCELLS.
BUOYANCY WILL BE MRGL…WITH MLCAPES GENERALLY UNDER 500
J/KG…HOWEVER MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SFC-BASED INFLOW IS
POSSIBLE AS FAR N AS PORTIONS IL/INDIANA. FAST STORM MOTIONS
EXCEEDING 45 KT ARE LIKELY…WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THREAT OF
LONG-TRACK TORNADOES FOR ANY RELATIVELY DISCRETE/SUSTAINED
SUPERCELLS THAT CAN DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.
