Archive for March, 2006

21z Macomb sounding

By Dan ( March 31, 2006 at 7:14 pm) · Filed under General

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Outbreak looking possible…

By Dan ( March 31, 2006 at 2:41 pm) · Filed under Severe

Just a quote from NIU’s Gilbert Sebenste..

“Wow. Lots of stuff to keep track of. If nothing else, PLEASE stay tuned
for the latest on the weather situation on Sunday. If you are in Peoria,
Bloomington, Champaign and Springfield on Sunday, two words…look out.
You have a high risk of getting hit with strong/severe storms Sunday
evening/night. You have been warned.”

12z NAM still shows a deepening low, 993mb, moving through WC Illinois on Sunday.
Cape is still over 2500, LI over -7, Shear more than good for supercells.
Looking great on Sunday so far.

“CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT DURING THE PERIOD.”
From ILX.

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Big Day on Sunday?

By Dan ( March 30, 2006 at 9:54 pm) · Filed under Chasing

Currently, the 00z NAM shows a 993mb over West Central Illinois at 00z Sunday. Cape bullseye over Macomb at 3500j/k. Dewpoints are forecasted to be over 60, with pockets of 65 possible.

Helicity looks pretty good, as does wind speeds. Might we be seeing a repeat of 3/12 but in Illinois?

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Severe Thunderstorm Watch 114

By Dan ( March 30, 2006 at 8:18 pm) · Filed under Severe 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 114
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
820 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN ILLINOIS
EASTERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 820 PM UNTIL
200 AM CST.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER…THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF QUINCY ILLINOIS TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF SAINT
LOUIS MISSOURI.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 111…WW 112…WW 113…

DISCUSSION…BANDS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER MO WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN IL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
INSTABILITY WEAKENS WITH EASTWARD EXTENT…BUT STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
WIND FIELDS SUGGEST A CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN
STRONGER CELLS.

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Big Snow on the way?

By Dan ( March 20, 2006 at 10:19 am) · Filed under Winter

Currently we are under a Winter Storm Watch for a possible 6+ inches of snow. But the Zone forecast for Macomb only mentions 2 inches or so. The NAM paints a big snowstorm over our area at 12z Tuesday morning, however.

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Tornado Outbreak Possible in Macomb Area

By Dan ( March 12, 2006 at 12:17 am) · Filed under Severe 

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/NRN MO INTO SERN IA AND PARTS OF WRN/CENTRAL  IL...
...SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MO AND MID MS RIVER VALLEYS...


Macomb is dead center in the High Risk.

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First Slight Risk of 2006

By Dan ( March 8, 2006 at 10:16 am) · Filed under General

Macomb’s under a slight risk for the first time in 2006. I doubt anything’ll happen other than rain…

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Low continues to intensify…

By Dan ( March 4, 2006 at 6:35 pm) · Filed under Severe

Too much going on to post full, but Thursday looks like it still will rock.

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Wow…just wow

By Dan ( March 3, 2006 at 11:54 pm) · Filed under Severe

An increase in chatter on ST tonight as..

Long story short…Me Likey!

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